Above: Nick Scholfield rides Steel Native at Ffos Las.
Steel Native has traded below at least half his BSP in-running in 4 of his last 5 races and he looks likely to trade low again against some out of form horses. He has not won under rules, though he is a point winner and has been very consistent in defeat recently. His last 3 runs were all here at Ffos Las, where he traded low against his BSP; he currently trades around 4.90 for a back-to-lay.
There was very little between Airlie Beach and Let’s Dance in the betting before the Mare’s Novice’s Hurdle at Cheltenham, but now they go in to this race poles apart, with Let’s Dance odds-on and Airlie Beach around 12.0 on the exchanges. Airlie Beach may have paid the price, trying to force the early pace, being at the head of the field while her stable mate came from behind to finish 30 lengths in in front. While it is a huge amount to turn-around, it should be a lot closer this time and Airlie Beach should get her own way upfront; she currently trades around 12.0 for a back-to-lay.
Alf N Dor has traded below at least half his BSP in 9 of his 11 career starts and he looks worth siding with again as a back-to-lay. He won his penultimate start here over today’s distance but found the 5lb rise probably too much last time on his return back to the course. Though he was beaten 5 lengths in to fifth it was still a good run where he travelled easily in to the later stages of the race to trade down to 1.35 in-running from a BSP of 4.70. He currently trades around 12.50 on Betfair.16 Apr 2017
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