Above: Daryl Jacob rides Lami Serge at Ayr.
Lami Serge has been incredibly consistent, finishing no worse than third in his last 10 runs. He ran a great race at Cheltenham to finish second, to only be beaten a neck by Arctic Fire. He went off at 25/1 for that race and traded all the way down to 2.28 from a BSP of 31.36.
He has failed only twice in in 14 races to trade below half his BSP in-running, but both times he went off at fairly short odds. Going off at big odds have seen him trade best, having gone off at 6.01 and 10.50 to trade down to 1.56 and 1.21 respectively. He should start at double figure prices again today and looks a decent back-to-lay; he currently trades around 12.50.
Flying Hope has traded below at least half her BSP in 11 of her 13 starts to date and more importantly in all 7 starts on turf. She can make the running or sit just behind the pace, but she usually ends up in the lead at some point which sees her trade low at this distance of 5 furlongs. She rarely finishes her races off and quickly drops out at the business end of the race. Her poor finishing positions have seen her drop down the handicap and today races of just 46, with claimer Ben Sanderson taking off another 7lb; she currently trades around 9.0 for a back-to-lay.
Above: Nick Scholfield rides Steel Native at Ffos Las.
Steel Native has traded below at least half his BSP in-running in 4 of his last 5 races and he looks likely to trade low again against some out of form horses. He has not won under rules, though he is a point winner and has been very consistent in defeat recently. His last 3 runs were all here at Ffos Las, where he traded low against his BSP; he currently trades around 4.90 for a back-to-lay.
There was very little between Airlie Beach and Let’s Dance in the betting before the Mare’s Novice’s Hurdle at Cheltenham, but now they go in to this race poles apart, with Let’s Dance odds-on and Airlie Beach around 12.0 on the exchanges. Airlie Beach may have paid the price, trying to force the early pace, being at the head of the field while her stable mate came from behind to finish 30 lengths in in front. While it is a huge amount to turn-around, it should be a lot closer this time and Airlie Beach should get her own way upfront; she currently trades around 12.0 for a back-to-lay.
Alf N Dor has traded below at least half his BSP in 9 of his 11 career starts and he looks worth siding with again as a back-to-lay. He won his penultimate start here over today’s distance but found the 5lb rise probably too much last time on his return back to the course. Though he was beaten 5 lengths in to fifth it was still a good run where he travelled easily in to the later stages of the race to trade down to 1.35 in-running from a BSP of 4.70. He currently trades around 12.50 on Betfair.
3.10 Kempton: Brandon Hill is a front runner in great form and he could well make it 5 wins from his last 6 races. At the bottom of the weights is Cloudy Bob, who last won here over course and distance last March. He is usually held up out the back and seems best suited to a left-handed flat galloping tracks. He has traded below at least half his BSP in-running in his last 6 races going left-handed at Kempton and Ascot, and you need to go nearly 2 years back to the last time he failed to trade low in-running going left-handed.
He currently trades around 11.0 for a back-to-lay, but as a horse that is usually held up he will probably trade bigger in-running for a better price.
Above: Ciaran Gethings rides Calin Du Brizais at Musselburgh.
2.20 Fairyhouse: Tulpar has traded below 20% of his BSP in-running in all 5 runs under rules. Last time out he claimed his maiden win in a 2m4f handicap chase at Punchestown. Travelling prominently he took up the running before being headed on the run-in to get up by a nose having traded at 350.0 in-running. He only won by a nose and is now up 7lb for that win, but the pair was 29 lengths clear of the third horse; he currently trades around 7.20 for a back-to-lay.
2.30 Lingfield: Come On Dave returned to form last time out at Kempton when making the most of being drawn in stall 1 to finish second to Outrage over 5 furlongs. He started the race with a BSP of 24.55 and traded all the way down to 1.33 in-running, he set off at a furious pace and was clear until tiring in the last half furlong. He has again being drawn in stall 1 and should be quickly with Mossgo on outside keeping the pressure on; he currently trades around 9.0 for a back-to-lay.
2.40 Musselburgh: The return to better ground and back to hurdling could see Calin Du Brizais bounce back to form following two poor efforts on soft ground over fences. He races off just 106 on his return to hurdling and with claimer Ciaran Gethrings taking off a further 5lbs, it puts him on his last winning mark of 101. His in-running trading over hurdles has seen him trade below at least half his BSP in 6 of his 7 races; he currently trades around 12.0 for a back-to-lay.
3.35 Sandown: Loose Chips is quite a regular here at Sandown, his last three racecourse appearances have been here which have seen him trade well below half his BSP in-running. He traded down to 3.30 in-running from a BSP of 26.64 over course and distance last time out, on ground similar to todays. He races off exactly the same mark and this prominent runner should again be competitive; he currently trades around 12.50 for a back-to-lay.
2.15 Catterick: Caprice D’Anglais has traded below at least half his BSP in 6 of his last 7 runs. While his last run was pretty disappointing, it may have come a little quick after an impressive 25 length win previously. His two previous runs before that disappointment yielded two wins on rain softened ground and on a right handed track which he returns to again here. He looks the obvious pace in this race with Nomoreblackjack likely to keep him company upfront; he currently trades around 6.60 for a back-to-lay.
2.45 Catterick: Brian Boranha has traded below at least half his BSP in his last four races and was unfortunate enough to lose a race he won after his jockey weighed in light last month. He’s a strong travelling horse the is usually held up behind the pace; he currently trades around 4.80 for a back-to-lay.
1.30 Southwell: Elkstone has fell in two of his last three races and despite that fact he has still traded below at least half his BSP in-running in those races. He’s a strong traveller that makes ground from the rear which sees him trade low in-running. Though he is struggling with his jumping he could well trade low if putting in a clear round; he currently trades around 14.0 for a back-to-lay.
3.25 Down Royal: This small field novice hurdle could play to the strengths of Charlie Stout. He is a strong travelling horse that is usually held-up right out the back and has met his fair share of trouble in-running in big field races around tight Irish tracks. With only four other runners to contend with today he should travel well in behind and be well positioned to challenge in the latter stages of the race; he currently trades around 4.50 for a back-to-lay.
4.00 Lingfield: Doitforthevillage was a course and distance winner here last December and now races off just a 5lb higher mark. The heavy ground should not inconvenience him having gone close at Exeter when only collared late on after demolishing the final fence when clear and possibly idling out in front. He ran a poor race last time out but it’s possible the race came too quick after his previous race; he currently trades around 4.60 for a back-to-lay.
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