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In-Running Blog

2016 Breeders Cup Preview: Friday

Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf

Bowies Hero

Above: Bowies Hero eases to a convincing win in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes over Big Score.

Aiden O'Brien has a great record in the Juvenile Turf having won 3 of the last 5 editions, both Lancaster Bomber and Intelligence Cross both look to have good chances. Both would appear to be just below group 1 class but have similar levels of form to his previous winners of the race and being by War Front they should handle the firm turf.

Though the American runners have a poor record in the race it could be worth chancing the first and second finishers in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes; Bowies Hero and Big Score at big prices. Bowies Hero beat Big Score by a length in that race with the pair quickly pulling nearly 7 lengths clear of the third in the straight over the lightning-fast Del Mar turf. Next time out Bowies Hero flopped in the Zuma Beach Stakes here at Santa Anita with Big Score winning impressively to make him a leading U.S. contender for the race. Post-race, it transpired that Bowies Hero below par run was down to a foot problem.

With home field advantage, both Big score at 10/1 with several bookies and Bowies Hero at 55.0 on the exchanges appeal in a wide-open race.

Breeders Cup Dirt Mile

Bob Baffert's Dortmund has by far the best form in this race, chasing home California Chrome in three defeats. With home-field advantage and against lesser opponents he is priced up around even money for this race.

Last year's Breeder's Cup Sprint winner Run Happy is stepping up to the mile this year. He was an impressive winner here last year of the grade one Malibu Stakes over 7 furlongs and finished fourth last month in a 1 mile handicap coming off a 9 month lay-off. He should be challenging Dortmund for the lead and is a decent bet at a best price of 13/2 with the UK bookies.

If the front two go off too fast then the 3-year-old Gun Runner could pick up the pieces, he's the 3-1 second favourite on the US morning line but is available at 6/1 with Paddy Power.

Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Fillies

La Coronel

Above: Jessamine Stakes winner La Coronel.

While the Europeans dominate in the male division it's a different story in with the fillies, with the U.S. taking 6 of the 8 editions.

The best of the U.S. runners looks to be La Coronel. She was an impressive winner of the grade 3 Jessamine Stakes at Keenland, but has drawn stall 14 here. Though her draw isn't ideal, it does see her go off at a bigger price, she's rated a 5/1 chance on the U.S. morning line, but is available at a best priced 9/1 with Bet365. Her trainer, Mark Casse won last year's race, also saddles Victory To Victory who won the Natalma Stakes at Woodbine, the same race last year's winner Catch A Glimpse won. Victory To Victory is 14/1 with the UK bookies but rated a 6/1 chance in the U.S., both horses appeal at prices with the U.K. bookies and at exchange prices.

There are some decent Europeans taking on the U.S. team, with Joseph O'Briens Intricately the favourite. Aiden O'Brien fields Roly Poly and Hydrangea but it may be the French pair that could come out on top of the challengers. Spainburg brings in some really good form and is likely to be a bigger price in the U.S. pools that the 5/1 available with the UK bookies.

At a much bigger price it could be worth chancing Cavale Doree who has been purchased by Martin Schwartz, who has footed a $100,000 supplementary to get her in to the race. After a couple of decent runs she flopped in the Prix Marcel Boussac finishing 5th of 11 runners, beaten just over 3 lengths. She met trouble in running and failed to produce her strong turn of foot. She is by the U.S. stallion Sunday Break and seems to revel on quick ground. If she takes to the U.S. style of racing she could be a great bet at 25/1 and even bigger on the exchanges.

Breeders Cup Distaff

The race looks a match-up between Songbird, Stellar Wind and Beholder. Stellar Wind just looks to have the edge over the 2013 winner Beholder on recent form. The 3-year-old Songbird has been impressive beating weaker opposition in her own generation but this is going to be much tougher against the older horses.

It's hard to weigh-up Songbird against her elders, but Stellar Wind at 7/2 appeals more than even money about Songbird.

3 Nov 2016

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