One And Only and Erupt Worthy Outsiders in the Japan Cup
Above: One And Only the far side of Isla Bonita winning last years Japanese Derby.
This year’s Japan Cup starts at 6.40am Sunday morning and doesn’t seem to have the Far East super-stars of recent years. From the era of Orfevre, Just A Way, Kizuna, Gentildonna and Epiphaneia there is only the notable Gold Ship this time around taking on some up and coming horses.
The best of the home team looks Lovely Day who has won his last four races, a grade 3, a grade 2 and two grade 1’s and is currently expected to go off around 7/4 in Japan but is available at 3/1 with Racebets.
The popular but enigmatic Gold Ship is available at 8/1 with the UK bookies but will probably go off around half those odds in Japan and although his best performances have come over staying races of Leger distances and further is he capable of winning this weaker Cup if he’s on a going day but could quite easily sulk if things do not go his way.
The 3-year-old filly Mikki Queen looks to follow in the footsteps of Gentildonna who won this race twice. She gets a full 9lb allowance off the older colts and won the two legs of the Japanese filly’s Triple Crown she contested.
At a big price is last year’s Japanese Derby winner here at Tokyo in One And Only who doesn’t win very often but a strongly run 12 furlongs is what seems to suit best. He looks to have been prepared for this race and in in a fairly weak renewal and from a great draw in 3 he could run a lot better than the 40/1 here in the UK suggests; he’s available at 40/1 at ¼ the odds with Bet365 for an each-way bet at a big price.
You can usually get huge odds on the European runners in the Japan Cup as the locals pile in to their runners irrespective of price. Last year U.S. raider Up With The Birds started at 158/1 while 2013 Irish Derby winner Trading Leather started at 68/1. In 2013 Dunaden started at 116/1, Simenon 163/1 and Joshua Tree 111/1.
This Year’s fifth place finisher in the Arc Erupt looks an above average European entrant in the Japan Cup and while the UK bookies have him as low as 5/1 for the race he’ll be much bigger on the Japanese PMU. He is certain to go off at double figure odds in Japan and though he’s not going to be as big as previous visitors from Europe in the last couple of years you could easily get 20+ returned and looks worth chancing at big odds with decent draw in stall 8.
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