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In-Running Blog

2016 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Preview

One Foot In Heaven trained by Alain de Royer-Dupre

Above: One Foot In Heaven trained by Alain de Royer-Dupre.

With good quick ground at Chantilly for this year’s Prix L’Arc De Triomphe, both the favourite Postponed and Japan’s Makahiki both have their ideal conditions to run up to their best.

Postponed hasn’t been beaten since last year’s Hardwicke Stakes in June, having racked up six wins in some of the world’s most prestigious races that include the Dubai Sheema Classic, Coronation Stakes and most recently the Juddmonte International Stakes at York in August. He is the clear favourite at a best priced 2/1 with the UK bookmakers but could be a better price on the PMU if you fancy him.

Makahiki just scrambled home in the Prix Niel at Chantilly in front of Midterm and Doha Dream but the trio pulled well clear of the remainders in what turned out to be a sprint down the home straight. Midterm, the one-time derby favourite was expected to run a great race and win by connections, while Andre Fabre’s Doha Dream had been in great form recently, having won 4 of his last 5 races.

If media attention won races then Makahiki would be an easy winner, which has surely led to his shortening price of 5/1, which could be a lot shorter on the PMU.

The Epsom Derby winner, Harzand looked a natural for the Arc with testing going likely but this hasn’t materialised. The form of the Derby looked decent at the time, but it has been badly let down since with the second placed finisher US Army Ranger running poorly since. With ease in the ground he would be a big danger in the race, but on quick ground he will surely struggle for pace.

Aiden O’Brien comes here with Found, Order Of St George and Highland Reel. Found is the pick of Ryan Moore and she will be hoping to improve on five second place finishes in as many races. Order Of St George gets a great jockey booking in Frankie Dettori, but he may struggle for pace on this quick ground. The ground should be ideal for Highland Reel who finished second to New Bay here last year in the Prix Du Jockey Club.

Andre Fabre’s New Bay appeared late in the season to be targeted at the Arc and it would be no surprise to see last year’s third place finisher go on to win the race this year.

Left Hand finished just half a length behind Le Cressonaire in the Pre De Diane and her chance has improved without her having to face that foe again. The step up in trip looks no problem but her recent gallop at Chantilly looked very laboured, having failed to pass her pace setter in her work. Her trainer, Carlos Laffon-Parias who won the 2012 Arc with Solemia insists this is normal for his filly who works lazily at home.

Left Hand

Above: Left Hand, the only 3-ytear-old filly in the race.

Laffon-Parias has always held her in high regard even as a juvenile having stepped her up from a maiden win straight in to the group one Prix Marcel Boussac, in which she eventually finished fourth. She was a cosy winner of the Prix Vermeille which has been one the best trials for the Arc in recent years. With the recent record of 3-year-old filly’s she looks a great bet at 20/1.

An interesting horse at an even bigger price is One Foot In Heaven who could out-run his price if things fall his way, currently 100+ on Betfair and 20 in the place market. While his achievements may leave him with a lot to find, he is relatively unexposed and has shown potential that he could be very good.

He is out of the mare Pride who finished second to Rail Link in the 2006 Arc, whom with a clear passage would have probably reeled in the winner. He looks strikingly similar to the great mare and possesses a potent turn of foot just like her and her sire Peintre Celebre.

He didn’t run as a 2-year-old and only made two racecourse appearances late on in his 3-year-old season, winning his maiden on his second attempt over Deauville’s polytrack.

As a 4-year-old this year he made rapid progress through the ranks with wins in listed, group three and group two races. He met defeat when stepping up in to the group one Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud on his penultimate start which was won by Silverwave, with One Foot In Heaven just over two lengths behind in sixth place. It was a race he looked likely to win, anchored at the back he made rapid headway on the inner rail only to find himself boxed in behind the lead horses that were tiring with nowhere to go. With a clear passage you can assume he could well have been a decisive winner and a leading contender for the Arc, but instead comes in to the race unconsidered and at a big price.

His trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre nominated him as one of his best horses this year, with great acceleration; the Arc has been his long term aim this year, having enjoyed a traditional summer break before prepping in the Prix Foy. He wasn’t pushed hard in his trial race with Soumillon easing up on him a furlong out after tiring in the straight which should have put him spot on for the big day.

If he doesn’t get too detached from the leaders and with a clear passage in a fast run race his finishing kick could get this outsider involved in the finish at a big price.

Selections:
Left Hand 20/1
One Foot In Heaven 100.0+ Betfair

1 Oct 2016

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