2016 Breeders Cup Preview: Saturday
Breeders Cup Sprint
Above: Bob Baffert's Drefong looks to extend his trainer's great record in the race.
Bob Baffert’s unexposed 3-year-old Drefong is pitched up against some in-form hardened sprinters, but he could add to his trainer’s great record in the race. He’s quoted at 7/2 on the morning line as the third choice in America but is rated shorter with the UK bookies.
Masochistic is put up as the favourite at 7/5 in America but only third best at 100/30 with the UK bookies. Masochistic’s performances have looked impressive but he’s been beating milers over 7 furlongs and doesn’t have any recent wins over this distance of 6 furlongs.
Drefong, with a great draw in stall 2 is my bet at 5.0 on the exchanges.
Breeders Cup Turf Sprint
A full field of 14 runners will be facing off in this year’s sprint over 6.5 furlongs down the Santa Anita down-hill start. Europeans haven’t really featured in the race, though not many have tried but this year’s race is going to be really tough on the very firm turf.
I would side with the two course specialists Holy Lute and Special Brew who have lot of experience on the unique course. You could well get decent prices on the exchanges of around 16.0 on Special Brew and 20.0 on Holy Lute who are both forecast to be much shorter on the U.S. morning line.
Breeders Cup Mile
Above: Midnight Storm faces a tough task against the Europeans in the Mile.
It will be fascinating to see the live betting in the U.S. pools before the race. Limato, the favourite with the UK bookies could be well down the betting in the U.S. as he’s seen as a sprinter which could see him go off at a very tempting price.
Of the American’s it is the local runner Midnight Storm that appeals the most at a big price. He has won his last 3 races, 2 of them here at Santa Anita over the mile. He is drawn poorly, in stall 13 and will be gunning for the lead as a habitual front-runner. He is rated an 8/1 shot on the morning line in the U.S. but is a best priced 25/1 with UK bookies but double that price on the exchanges.
Breeders Cup Classsic
California Chrome has been beating up many of these classic contenders, but I’m going to chance Arrogate at 4.0+ and Melatonin at 30.0+ on the exchanges, who have yet to face him.
Arrogate’s performance in the Travers was impressive, stepping up from a claimer in to the grade one show-piece; he slammed his classic generation by over 13 lengths.
Melatonin has won 4 of his 5 races here at Santa Anita including two grade ones over 10 furlongs. His form with Hoppertunity and Effinex doesn’t put him too far behind California Chrome.
Other Races
I’ll be watching the U.S. pools, the exchanges and keeping an eye on the bookies for any stand-out discrepancies in prices in the different markets. Highland Reel should really enjoy the firm ground in the Turf and could reverse form with Found from the Arc; he could be a big price.
The Filly and Mare Turf could also throw up big price discrepancies with several Europeans in there; along with Japan’s Nuovo Record who reverts back to tackling her own sex.
While there are no Europeans in any of the other Breeders Cup races on the dirt, it could still present some favourable betting situations.
4 Nov 2016Latest on the Exchanges
Big Priced Outsiders For The 2018 Grand National
Antepost Preview: Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018
In-running Lays: Back-to-lay Lami Serge and Flying Hope
In-running Lays: Back-to-lay Steel Native, Airlie Beach and Alf N Dor
In-running Lays: Back-to-lay Cloudy Bob at Kempton
In-running Lays: Back-to-lay Tulpar, Come On Dave and Loose Chips
In-running Lays: Back-to-lay Brian Boranha and Caprice D’Anglais
In-running Lays: Back-to-lay Charlie Stout and Doitforthevillage
In-running Lays: Back-to-lay Any Currency at Cheltenham
In-running Lays: Back-to-lay Wee Small Hours at Fairyhouse
In-running Lays: Back-to-lay Bigirononhiship and Rhymers Stone
In-running Lays: Back-to-lay Aliser D’Irlane
Navigate
Find Us
Address: Pitboss Gaming
Doncaster
DN5 8AY
Gambling Problems? The Winning Warlock encourages responsible gambling. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you care about, contact the associations below for support.
© Copyright 2017 Pitboss Gaming