2016 Arlington Million Stakes Preview
Above: World Approval Winning the United Nations Stakes.
This year’s Arlington Million sees all the horses high in the betting drawn wide in unfavourable positions. Roger Charlton’s Decorated Knight is in 8, Breeders Cup Mile runner-up, Mondialiste is in 9. The two leading American horses, Wake Forest and World Approval in 10 and 11, while the European pair of Tryster and Deauville are drawn widest of all in 12 and 13.
Last year’s winner, The Pizza Man has a great draw in 5 but is coming in to this year’s race after some poor performances that have seen him beaten and finishing unplaced as short priced favourites in each of his last three runs.
Tryster is the favourite after his great sequence in Dubai which included a group one win at Meydan. He is the 4/1favourite with the UK bookies and seems well represented in the US media where he is being listed as the 7/2 morning line favourite. If this race was run at Meydan he would be a great bet at those prices, but his form away from Dubai has been at a much lower level.
Deauville has already proved himself at grade one level in the U.S. with a bad draw, but this is a much tougher race.
Above: Wake Forest was an impressive winner of this year's Man O'War Stakes.
The two American horses that appeal to me are Wake Forest, who is currently forecast as the 5/1 on the morning line, but can be backed at 14/1 with the British bookies and World Approval who is rated a 4/1 chance on the morning line, but can be backed at 8/1 with the bookies.
Wake Forest was formerly trained in Germany by Andreas Wohler, who won at group three level in his native country. He has taken well to U.S. racing and was the winner of this year’s Man O’War Stakes at Belmont on firm turf coming way off the pace. He was sent off favourite for the grade one United Nations Stakes but finished third to World Approval after making up ground from the rear, as is his style of racing so his draw in 11 will not be such a negative but will need luck in running.
In contrast, World Approval races up with the pace and will probably be racing wide early from his draw in 10. The course does favour horses racing prominently that can hold a stalking position. If he can get a good position and not give up too much ground he could hold a big advantage over the other fancied horses in the race who will need luck in-running coming from off the pace.
Recommended bets
World Approval, generally 8/1 with most UK bookmakers.
Wake Forest, 14/1 with Coral
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